Thursday, December 11, 2008

Disappointment with CDS Markets

Sorry State of CDS Markets as summarized by John Dizard of Financial Times:

"Effectively, there isn't any CDS market now."

David Goldman, an old friend and credit strategist turned private investor, still goes through the credit run sheets from the dealers. "The business looks like the window of a Brezhnev-era Soviet butcher shop. Mouldy scraps hanging in the window. Old women lining up at 4am to try and buy credit protection on General Motors. What are reported as trades are really ways to establish prices to satisfy the auditors."

For several years, I have been among those calling for thoughtful, prudent, moderate steps for the reform of the credit default swaps market. They should be put on exchanges, put through central clearing houses, settlement backlogs reduced and then eliminated . . . etc.

I was wrong. The global credit default swaps market should just be liquidated, the contracts allowed to expire and the booby traps defused.

There are three possible defences for treating the CDS market as a going concern: its support for capital raising, its utility for price discovery and its role as a risk-management tool. All have melted like so many Lehman deal cubes in waste incinerators...